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CE União U20 vs City London U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

CE União U20
CE União U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
City London U20
City London U20
3/28/2026Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CE União U2045%
×Draw21%
City London U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CE União U20
2.17
City London U20
1.90

CE União U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

CE União U20
1.60
City London U20
2.00

allows per match

CE União U20
1.80
City London U20
2.75

finishing

CE União U20+0.00on par
City London U20+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CE União U20 ↓

City London U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

CE União U20 or draw
65%
CE União U20 or City London U20
79%
Draw or City London U20
55%

Winning margin

CE União U20 wins by 2+
26%
City London U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CE União U20 1+ goals
89%
CE União U20 2+ goals
64%
CE União U20 3+ goals
36%
City London U20 1+ goals
85%
City London U20 2+ goals
56%
City London U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

CE União U20 (draw refunded)
56%
City London U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CE União U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

City London U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CE União U20 attack 1.60 + City London U20 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.17

City London U20 attack 2.00 + CE União U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CE União U20 scores more
45%
level
21%
City London U20 scores more
35%

CE União U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CE União U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CE União U20 vs City London U20

CE União U20 and City London U20 drew 1-1 in Paranaense U20 on March 28, 2026.