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CE União U20 vs Athletico PR U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

CE União U20
CE União U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Athletico PR U20
Athletico PR U20
3/7/2026Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CE União U2025%
×Draw22%
Athletico PR U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CE União U20
1.32
Athletico PR U20
1.98

Athletico PR U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

CE União U20
1.60
Athletico PR U20
2.17

allows per match

CE União U20
1.80
Athletico PR U20
1.04

finishing

CE União U20+0.00on par
Athletico PR U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CE União U20 ↓

Athletico PR U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

CE União U20 or draw
47%
CE União U20 or Athletico PR U20
78%
Draw or Athletico PR U20
75%

Winning margin

CE União U20 wins by 2+
11%
Athletico PR U20 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

CE União U20 1+ goals
73%
CE União U20 2+ goals
38%
CE União U20 3+ goals
15%
Athletico PR U20 1+ goals
86%
Athletico PR U20 2+ goals
59%
Athletico PR U20 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

CE União U20 (draw refunded)
33%
Athletico PR U20 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CE União U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Athletico PR U20 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CE União U20 attack 1.60 + Athletico PR U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.32

Athletico PR U20 attack 2.17 + CE União U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CE União U20 scores more
25%
level
22%
Athletico PR U20 scores more
53%

Athletico PR U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Athletico PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: CE União U20 0–3 Athletico PR U20

Athletico PR U20 beat CE União U20 3-0 in Paranaense U20 on March 7, 2026.