CDS Tampico Madero 1–1 Venados FC: Result & Stats

CDS Tampico Madero

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Venados FC

E. Torres 25'

S. Lora 89'

4/5/2026

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Tamaulipas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CDS Tampico Madero54%

×Draw26%

Venados FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CDS Tampico MaderoExpected goals in this matchVenados FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.85

CDS Tampico Madero

1.56

Venados FC

0.85

CDS Tampico Madero creates 84% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 132 away

1.49

creates per match

0.98

0.73

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

CDS Tampico Madero

1.49

Venados FC

0.98

allows per match

CDS Tampico Madero

0.73

Venados FC

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CDS Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDS Tampico Madero ↓

Venados FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CDS Tampico Madero or draw

80%

CDS Tampico Madero or Venados FC

74%

Draw or Venados FC

46%

Winning margin

CDS Tampico Madero wins by 2+

28%

Venados FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CDS Tampico Madero 1+ goals

79%

CDS Tampico Madero 2+ goals

46%

CDS Tampico Madero 3+ goals

21%

Venados FC 1+ goals

57%

Venados FC 2+ goals

21%

Venados FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CDS Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

73%

Venados FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDS Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDS Tampico Madero attack 1.49 + Venados FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.56

Venados FC attack 0.98 + CDS Tampico Madero defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CDS Tampico Madero scores more

54%

level

26%

Venados FC scores more

20%

CDS Tampico Madero at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CDS Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

25'

27'

33'

46'

J. Martinez← S. Benitez

62'

O. Ballesteros← J. Salcido

71'

J. Portales

75'

O. Soto← S. Flores

75'

J. Peralta← A. Escoboza

80'

J. Cruz← D. Navarrete

82'

F. Martinez← N. Corona

86'

89'

90+3'

90+5'

90+3'

J. Martinez← J. Saldivar

CDS

Venados

28

Delgado

4

Grijalva

15

▼

Navarrete

24

▼

8

10

11

23

▼

Galvan

143

▼

Benitez

7

Calero

29

⚽

13

3

18

24

8

⚽

Torres

20

▼

Saldivar

28

▼

Flores

5

Razo

14

▼

Corona

22

Clemente

23

▼

Escoboza

Manager: Marco Ruiz

75'▲O. Soto←▼S. Flores

75'▲J. Peralta←▼A. Escoboza

82'▲F. Martinez←▼N. Corona

90+3'▲J. Martinez←▼J. Saldivar

CDS Tampico Madero substitutes

1Garcia2Gonzalez6Garcia10Soto16Dominguez19Martinez9Martinez15Puertos21Peralta27Escalante

Manager: Rigoberto Esparza

46'▲J. Martinez←▼S. Benitez

62'▲O. Ballesteros←▼J. Salcido

80'▲J. Cruz←▼D. Navarrete

86'▲C. Lopez←▼P. Galvan

Venados FC substitutes

27Ramirez20Cruz25Castro32Aguilar34Saucedo6Lopez9Derbez17Martinez19Ballesteros21Lopez

Liga de Expansión MX: CDS Tampico Madero 1–1 Venados FC

CDS Tampico Madero and Venados FC drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 5, 2026.

Goals: E. Torres (25'), S. Lora (89').

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas in Tampico-Ciudad Madero.

CDS Tampico Madero vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga de Expansión MX: CDS Tampico Madero 1–1 Venados FC