CDS Tampico Madero 1–1 Atlante FC: Result & Stats

CDS Tampico Madero

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlante FC

D. Magaña 71'

V. Moragrega 42'

4/20/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Tamaulipas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CDS Tampico Madero44%

×Draw28%

Atlante FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CDS Tampico MaderoExpected goals in this matchAtlante FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.97

CDS Tampico Madero

1.29

Atlante FC

0.97

CDS Tampico Madero creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 152 away

1.49

creates per match

1.21

0.73

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

CDS Tampico Madero

1.49

Atlante FC

1.21

allows per match

CDS Tampico Madero

0.73

Atlante FC

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CDS Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Atlante FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDS Tampico Madero ↓

Atlante FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CDS Tampico Madero or draw

72%

CDS Tampico Madero or Atlante FC

72%

Draw or Atlante FC

56%

Winning margin

CDS Tampico Madero wins by 2+

20%

Atlante FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CDS Tampico Madero 1+ goals

72%

CDS Tampico Madero 2+ goals

37%

CDS Tampico Madero 3+ goals

14%

Atlante FC 1+ goals

62%

Atlante FC 2+ goals

25%

Atlante FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CDS Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

61%

Atlante FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDS Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Atlante FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDS Tampico Madero attack 1.49 + Atlante FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atlante FC attack 1.21 + CDS Tampico Madero defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CDS Tampico Madero scores more

44%

level

28%

Atlante FC scores more

28%

CDS Tampico Madero at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CDS Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

22'

34'

42'

45+1'

49'

62'

62'

62'

D. Santacruz← J. Angulo

68'

P. Martínez← Adrián Sánchez

71'

D. Magaña

75'

J. Santacruz

88'

S. Ramos← E. Pérez

88'

Rolando González← O. Soto

90+2'

A. Escoboza

90+2'

M. Garcia Pardo

90+2'

E. Jimenez

90+4'

A. Rios

CDS

Atlante

31

Forastier

28

Elbis

27

Escobar

21

▼

15

13

34

17

35

▼

Sánchez

11

Durán

9

⚽

Moragrega

13

Ruiz

4

Ríos

3

▼

23

28

16

10

▼

Soto

2

Bocco

26

▼

Pérez

14

▼

Corona

27

▼

Angulo

Manager: M. Ruiz

62'▲R. López←▼D. García

62'▲D. Magaña←▼N. Corona

62'▲D. Santacruz←▼J. Angulo

88'▲S. Ramos←▼E. Pérez

88'▲Rolando González←▼O. Soto

CDS Tampico Madero substitutes

5López7Magaña20Santacruz30Ramos33González6García12Flores24López29López17Treviño

Manager: M. Fuentes

34'▲P. Galván←▼J. Ibarra

68'▲P. Martínez←▼Adrián Sánchez

Atlante FC substitutes

6Galván19Martínez20Hernández23Millán24Santillana26Espinosa30Espinoza37Ramírez38Tenorio162Reyes