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CDJU Gualeguaychu vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
CANC
22:00
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VR
5/2/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · North - 30Estadio Luis Delfino (Gualeguaychú, Provincia de Entre Ríos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu43%
×Draw28%
Defensores de Belgrano VR29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.27
Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.00

CDJU Gualeguaychu creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 113 away

creates per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.19
Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.90

allows per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.09
Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.35

finishing

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par
Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJU Gualeguaychu ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CDJU Gualeguaychu or draw
71%
CDJU Gualeguaychu or Defensores de Belgrano VR
72%
Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR
57%

Winning margin

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
19%
Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
72%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
36%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
14%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals
63%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals
26%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
59%
Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDJU Gualeguaychu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 1.19 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
43%
level
28%
Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more
29%

CDJU Gualeguaychu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CDJU Gualeguaychu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CDJU Gualeguaychu host Defensores de Belgrano VR

May 2, 2020: CDJU Gualeguaychu take on Defensores de Belgrano VR in Torneo Federal A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

CDJU Gualeguaychu host Defensores de Belgrano VR at Estadio Luis Delfino (Gualeguaychú, Provincia de Entre Ríos).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.