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CDJU Gualeguaychu vs Boca Unidos — Torneo Federal A 2018

CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
4/10/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 3Estadio Luis Delfino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu45%
×Draw27%
Boca Unidos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.36
Boca Unidos
0.99

CDJU Gualeguaychu creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 105 away

creates per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.19
Boca Unidos
0.89

allows per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.09
Boca Unidos
1.54

finishing

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par
Boca Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJU Gualeguaychu ↓

Boca Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CDJU Gualeguaychu or draw
73%
CDJU Gualeguaychu or Boca Unidos
73%
Draw or Boca Unidos
55%

Winning margin

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
21%
Boca Unidos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
74%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
39%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
16%
Boca Unidos 1+ goals
63%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
26%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
62%
Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDJU Gualeguaychu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

Boca Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 1.19 + Boca Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Boca Unidos attack 0.89 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
45%
level
27%
Boca Unidos scores more
27%

CDJU Gualeguaychu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CDJU Gualeguaychu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: CDJU Gualeguaychu 1–2 Boca Unidos

Boca Unidos beat CDJU Gualeguaychu 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Delfino in Gualeguaychú, Provincia de Entre Ríos.