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CDJU Gualeguaychu vs Atletico Parana — Torneo Federal A 2018

CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
3/7/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 6Estadio Luis Delfino (Gualeguaychú, Provincia de Entre Ríos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu49%
×Draw27%
Atletico Parana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.40
Atletico Parana
0.89

CDJU Gualeguaychu creates 57% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 28 away

creates per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.19
Atletico Parana
0.68

allows per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.09
Atletico Parana
1.61

finishing

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par
Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJU Gualeguaychu ↓

Atletico Parana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CDJU Gualeguaychu or draw
76%
CDJU Gualeguaychu or Atletico Parana
73%
Draw or Atletico Parana
51%

Winning margin

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
24%
Atletico Parana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
75%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
41%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
17%
Atletico Parana 1+ goals
59%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
22%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
67%
Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDJU Gualeguaychu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

Atletico Parana away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 1.19 + Atletico Parana defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atletico Parana attack 0.68 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
49%
level
27%
Atletico Parana scores more
24%

CDJU Gualeguaychu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CDJU Gualeguaychu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CDJU Gualeguaychu vs Atletico Parana

CDJU Gualeguaychu and Atletico Parana drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Delfino (Gualeguaychú, Provincia de Entre Ríos).