CDJ Tamarite 0–2 Sabiñánigo: Result & Stats

CDJ Tamarite

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sabiñánigo

5/30/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 10Campo La Colomina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CDJ Tamarite47%

×Draw25%

Sabiñánigo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CDJ TamariteExpected goals in this matchSabiñánigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.15

CDJ Tamarite

1.58

Sabiñánigo

1.15

CDJ Tamarite creates 37% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

1.24

1.06

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

CDJ Tamarite

1.41

Sabiñánigo

1.24

allows per match

CDJ Tamarite

1.06

Sabiñánigo

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Sabiñánigo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJ Tamarite ↓

Sabiñánigo →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CDJ Tamarite or draw

72%

CDJ Tamarite or Sabiñánigo

75%

Draw or Sabiñánigo

53%

Winning margin

CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+

24%

Sabiñánigo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals

79%

CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals

47%

CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals

21%

Sabiñánigo 1+ goals

68%

Sabiñánigo 2+ goals

32%

Sabiñánigo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)

63%

Sabiñánigo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CDJ Tamarite at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

Sabiñánigo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.41 + Sabiñánigo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sabiñánigo attack 1.24 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

CDJ Tamarite scores more

47%

level

25%

Sabiñánigo scores more

28%

CDJ Tamarite at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CDJ Tamarite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff