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CDJ Tamarite vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

CDJ Tamarite
CDJ Tamarite
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Caspe
Caspe
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 32Campo La Colomina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

CDJ Tamarite42%
×Draw29%
Caspe29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CDJ Tamarite
1.25
Caspe
0.98

CDJ Tamarite creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 83 away

creates per match

CDJ Tamarite
1.41
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

CDJ Tamarite
1.06
Caspe
1.10

finishing

CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJ Tamarite ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CDJ Tamarite or draw
71%
CDJ Tamarite or Caspe
71%
Draw or Caspe
58%

Winning margin

CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+
19%
Caspe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals
71%
CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals
36%
CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals
13%
Caspe 1+ goals
62%
Caspe 2+ goals
26%
Caspe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)
59%
Caspe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDJ Tamarite at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.41 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Caspe attack 0.89 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CDJ Tamarite scores more
42%
level
29%
Caspe scores more
29%

CDJ Tamarite at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CDJ Tamarite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: CDJ Tamarite 1–2 Caspe

Caspe beat CDJ Tamarite 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo La Colomina in Tamarite de Litera.