CD Real Sociedad 0–2 Real Espana: Result & Stats

CD Real Sociedad

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Espana

D. Ramírez 90+3'

Y. Moreno 21'

1/26/2025

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 2Estadio Francisco Martínez Durón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

CD Real Sociedad32%

×Draw26%

Real Espana43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Real SociedadExpected goals in this matchReal Espana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.45

CD Real Sociedad

1.21

Real Espana

1.45

Real Espana creates 20% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 161 away

1.13

creates per match

1.22

1.68

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

CD Real Sociedad

1.13

Real Espana

1.22

allows per match

CD Real Sociedad

1.68

Real Espana

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Real Sociedad+0.00on par

Real Espana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Real Sociedad ↓

Real Espana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CD Real Sociedad or draw

57%

CD Real Sociedad or Real Espana

74%

Draw or Real Espana

68%

Winning margin

CD Real Sociedad wins by 2+

13%

Real Espana wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

CD Real Sociedad 1+ goals

70%

CD Real Sociedad 2+ goals

34%

CD Real Sociedad 3+ goals

12%

Real Espana 1+ goals

77%

Real Espana 2+ goals

42%

Real Espana 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

CD Real Sociedad (draw refunded)

43%

Real Espana (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Real Sociedad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

Real Espana away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.29 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Real Sociedad attack 1.13 + Real Espana defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Espana attack 1.22 + CD Real Sociedad defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CD Real Sociedad scores more

32%

level

26%

Real Espana scores more

43%

Real Espana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Espana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Y. Moreno

40'

B. Moya

46'

B. Félix← A. Fuentes

46'

E. Delgado← M. Flores

58'

A. Tatum← B. Moya

58'

D. Ramírez← D. Vuelto

60'

62'

69'

73'

81'

83'

O. Gonzalez

90+1'

D. Cacho← M. Núñez

90+1'

D. Mencia← J. Benavidez

90+3'

D. Ramírez

CD

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Londoño

46'▲B. Félix←▼A. Fuentes

46'▲E. Delgado←▼M. Flores

60'▲D. Monico←▼Y. Dolmo

CD Real Sociedad substitutes

FélixDelgadoMonicoGómezReyesAgurciaBernárdezRoaCarrascoEnamoradoGotay

Manager: J. Campos

58'▲A. Tatum←▼B. Moya

58'▲D. Ramírez←▼D. Vuelto

69'▲G. Mejía←▼Y. Moreno

90+1'▲D. Cacho←▼M. Núñez

90+1'▲D. Mencia←▼J. Benavidez

Real Espana substitutes

TatumRamírezMejíaCachoMenciaAlvaradoRotondiRodríguezOsortoArdon

Match Recap: CD Real Sociedad vs Real Espana

Real Espana beat CD Real Sociedad 2-0 in Liga Nacional on January 26, 2025.

Goals: Y. Moreno (21'), D. Ramírez (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Martínez Durón in Tocoa.

CD Real Sociedad vs Real Espana — Liga Nacional 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CD Real Sociedad vs Real Espana