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CD Olmedo vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2018

CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
8/21/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 5Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CD Olmedo36%
×Draw27%
Tecnico Universitario36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olmedo
1.22
Tecnico Universitario
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 129 away

creates per match

CD Olmedo
1.04
Tecnico Universitario
0.86

allows per match

CD Olmedo
1.58
Tecnico Universitario
1.40

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw
64%
CD Olmedo or Tecnico Universitario
73%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
64%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+
16%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals
70%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
34%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
12%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
70%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
34%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
50%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.04 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + CD Olmedo defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

CD Olmedo scores more
36%
level
27%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
36%

CD Olmedo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Olmedo vs Tecnico Universitario

CD Olmedo and Tecnico Universitario drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba in Riobamba.