CD Olmedo 3–4 Puerto Quito: Result & Stats

CD Olmedo

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Puerto Quito

4/29/2018

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 10Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba (Riobamba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CD Olmedo45%

×Draw28%

Puerto Quito27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD OlmedoExpected goals in this matchPuerto Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.97

CD Olmedo

1.34

Puerto Quito

0.97

CD Olmedo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 85 away

1.32

creates per match

0.76

1.18

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

CD Olmedo

1.32

Puerto Quito

0.76

allows per match

CD Olmedo

1.18

Puerto Quito

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Puerto Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Puerto Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw

73%

CD Olmedo or Puerto Quito

72%

Draw or Puerto Quito

55%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

21%

Puerto Quito wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

74%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

39%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

15%

Puerto Quito 1+ goals

62%

Puerto Quito 2+ goals

25%

Puerto Quito 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

63%

Puerto Quito (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Puerto Quito away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.32 + Puerto Quito defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Puerto Quito attack 0.76 + CD Olmedo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CD Olmedo scores more

45%

level

28%

Puerto Quito scores more

27%

CD Olmedo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff