CD Olmedo 2–0 Mushuc Runa SC: Result & Stats

CD Olmedo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mushuc Runa SC

10/14/2018

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 37Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba (Riobamba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CD Olmedo36%

×Draw27%

Mushuc Runa SC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD OlmedoExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.27

CD Olmedo

1.25

Mushuc Runa SC

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 22 away

1.32

creates per match

1.36

1.18

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

CD Olmedo

1.32

Mushuc Runa SC

1.36

allows per match

CD Olmedo

1.18

Mushuc Runa SC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw

63%

CD Olmedo or Mushuc Runa SC

73%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

64%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

16%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

71%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

36%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

13%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

72%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

36%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

49%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.32 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.36 + CD Olmedo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CD Olmedo scores more

36%

level

27%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

37%

Mushuc Runa SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff