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CD Olmedo vs LDU Portoviejo — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
7/1/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 20Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba (Riobamba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CD Olmedo43%
×Draw28%
LDU Portoviejo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olmedo
1.31
LDU Portoviejo
1.04

CD Olmedo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 69 away

creates per match

CD Olmedo
1.32
LDU Portoviejo
0.91

allows per match

CD Olmedo
1.18
LDU Portoviejo
1.29

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par
LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

LDU Portoviejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw
70%
CD Olmedo or LDU Portoviejo
72%
Draw or LDU Portoviejo
57%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+
20%
LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals
73%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
38%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
14%
LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
65%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
28%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
59%
LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

LDU Portoviejo away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.32 + LDU Portoviejo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

LDU Portoviejo attack 0.91 + CD Olmedo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CD Olmedo scores more
43%
level
28%
LDU Portoviejo scores more
30%

CD Olmedo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Olmedo vs LDU Portoviejo

CD Olmedo beat LDU Portoviejo 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba (Riobamba).