CD Olmedo 0–0 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

CD Olmedo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

2/28/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 2Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CD Olmedo28%

×Draw26%

LDU de Quito46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD OlmedoExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.48

CD Olmedo

1.09

LDU de Quito

1.48

LDU de Quito creates 36% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 136 away

1.04

creates per match

1.37

1.58

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

CD Olmedo

1.04

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

CD Olmedo

1.58

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw

54%

CD Olmedo or LDU de Quito

74%

Draw or LDU de Quito

72%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

11%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

66%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

30%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

10%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

77%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

43%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

38%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.04 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + CD Olmedo defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CD Olmedo scores more

28%

level

26%

LDU de Quito scores more

46%

LDU de Quito at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff