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CD Olmedo vs Guayaquil — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guayaquil
Guayaquil
9/8/2022Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 26Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CD Olmedo47%
×Draw26%
Guayaquil27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olmedo
1.46
Guayaquil
1.04

CD Olmedo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 54 away

creates per match

CD Olmedo
1.32
Guayaquil
0.91

allows per match

CD Olmedo
1.18
Guayaquil
1.59

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par
Guayaquil+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Guayaquil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw
73%
CD Olmedo or Guayaquil
74%
Draw or Guayaquil
53%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+
23%
Guayaquil wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals
77%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
43%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
18%
Guayaquil 1+ goals
65%
Guayaquil 2+ goals
28%
Guayaquil 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
63%
Guayaquil (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Guayaquil away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.59 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.32 + Guayaquil defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Guayaquil attack 0.91 + CD Olmedo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CD Olmedo scores more
47%
level
26%
Guayaquil scores more
27%

CD Olmedo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Olmedo vs Guayaquil

CD Olmedo and Guayaquil drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba in Riobamba.