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CD Olmedo vs 9 de Octubre — Liga Pro 2018

CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
J. Andrade 13'
W. Caicedo 89'
D. Luna 53' (pen)
8/17/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 4Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CD Olmedo39%
×Draw25%
9 de Octubre36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olmedo
1.44
9 de Octubre
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

CD Olmedo
1.04
9 de Octubre
1.17

allows per match

CD Olmedo
1.58
9 de Octubre
1.83

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par
9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

9 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw
64%
CD Olmedo or 9 de Octubre
75%
Draw or 9 de Octubre
61%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+
18%
9 de Octubre wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals
76%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
42%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
18%
9 de Octubre 1+ goals
75%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
40%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
52%
9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.04 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

9 de Octubre attack 1.17 + CD Olmedo defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CD Olmedo scores more
39%
level
25%
9 de Octubre scores more
36%

CD Olmedo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
J. Andrade↳ M. Yedro
46'
M. Da Luz← J. Cortéz
46'
F. Mejía← R. Jaramillo
48'
Sergio Quintero
53'
D. LunaPenalty
69'
K. Rivera← X. Estacio
72'
Rommel Cabezas
83'
W. Caicedo← M. Da Luz
84'
Tito Valencia
89'
W. Caicedo↳ D. Cabezas
90+3'
J. Morales← D. Garcia
90+3'
É. Cetré← D. Luna
90+3'
G. Mina← J. Fajardo

Possession

37%CD

Shots

8CD

Statistics

CD9
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots7
1Corners5
14Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots7
3On Target4
5Off Target3
Passing
37%Possession63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
8Offsides3

Liga Pro: CD Olmedo 1–2 9 de Octubre

9 de Octubre beat CD Olmedo 2-1 in Liga Pro on August 17, 2021.

Goals: J. Andrade (13'), D. Luna (53' pen), W. Caicedo (89').

9 de Octubre controlled possession (63%) and registered 7 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba in Riobamba.