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CD Olimpia vs Olancho — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Olancho
Olancho
9/18/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 10Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

CD Olimpia56%
×Draw24%
Olancho20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olimpia
1.69
Olancho
0.89

CD Olimpia creates 90% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 85 away

creates per match

CD Olimpia
2.13
Olancho
1.12

allows per match

CD Olimpia
0.65
Olancho
1.25

finishing

CD Olimpia+0.00on par
Olancho+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olimpia ↓

Olancho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CD Olimpia or draw
80%
CD Olimpia or Olancho
76%
Draw or Olancho
44%

Winning margin

CD Olimpia wins by 2+
31%
Olancho wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CD Olimpia 1+ goals
82%
CD Olimpia 2+ goals
50%
CD Olimpia 3+ goals
24%
Olancho 1+ goals
59%
Olancho 2+ goals
22%
Olancho 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CD Olimpia (draw refunded)
74%
Olancho (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olimpia at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 173 matches

Olancho away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olimpia attack 2.13 + Olancho defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

Olancho attack 1.12 + CD Olimpia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CD Olimpia scores more
56%
level
24%
Olancho scores more
20%

CD Olimpia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CD Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: CD Olimpia 2–2 Olancho

CD Olimpia and Olancho drew 2-2 in Liga Nacional on September 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles in Tegucigalpa.