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CD Olimpia vs Génesis — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Génesis
Génesis
5/4/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 18Estadio José de la Paz Herrera Uclés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Olimpia61%
×Draw22%
Génesis16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olimpia
1.84
Génesis
0.83

CD Olimpia creates 122% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 64 away

creates per match

CD Olimpia
2.13
Génesis
1.02

allows per match

CD Olimpia
0.65
Génesis
1.56

finishing

CD Olimpia+0.00on par
Génesis+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olimpia ↓

Génesis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CD Olimpia or draw
84%
CD Olimpia or Génesis
78%
Draw or Génesis
39%

Winning margin

CD Olimpia wins by 2+
36%
Génesis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CD Olimpia 1+ goals
84%
CD Olimpia 2+ goals
55%
CD Olimpia 3+ goals
28%
Génesis 1+ goals
56%
Génesis 2+ goals
20%
Génesis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CD Olimpia (draw refunded)
79%
Génesis (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olimpia at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 173 matches

Génesis away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.56 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olimpia attack 2.13 + Génesis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

Génesis attack 1.02 + CD Olimpia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CD Olimpia scores more
61%
level
22%
Génesis scores more
16%

CD Olimpia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CD Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Olimpia vs Génesis

CD Olimpia beat Génesis 4-0 in Liga Nacional on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio José de la Paz Herrera Uclés in Tegucigalpa.