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CD Motagua vs CF Pachuca — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

CD Motagua
CD Motagua
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
3/10/2023CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CD Motagua8%
×Draw28%
CF Pachuca64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Motagua
0.29
CF Pachuca
1.33

CF Pachuca creates 359% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

CD Motagua
0.33
CF Pachuca
1.50

allows per match

CD Motagua
1.17
CF Pachuca
0.25

finishing

CD Motagua+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Motagua ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–126%
0–218%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (26%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

CD Motagua or draw
36%
CD Motagua or CF Pachuca
72%
Draw or CF Pachuca
92%

Winning margin

CD Motagua wins by 2+
1%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

CD Motagua 1+ goals
25%
CD Motagua 2+ goals
3%
CD Motagua 3+ goals
0%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
74%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
38%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CD Motagua (draw refunded)
11%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Motagua at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Motagua attack 0.33 + CF Pachuca defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.29

CF Pachuca attack 1.50 + CD Motagua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

CD Motagua scores more
8%
level
28%
CF Pachuca scores more
64%

CF Pachuca at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: CD Motagua 0–0 CF Pachuca

CD Motagua and CF Pachuca drew 0-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano in San Pedro Sula.