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CD Marathon vs Real Espana — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Marathon
CD Marathon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Espana
Real Espana
10/16/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 14Estadio Yankel Rosenthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 161+ matches

CD Marathon48%
×Draw25%
Real Espana27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Marathon
1.55
Real Espana
1.10

CD Marathon creates 41% more chances

Season form · 164 home / 161 away

creates per match

CD Marathon
1.81
Real Espana
1.22

allows per match

CD Marathon
0.98
Real Espana
1.29

finishing

CD Marathon+0.00on par
Real Espana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Marathon ↓

Real Espana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CD Marathon or draw
73%
CD Marathon or Real Espana
75%
Draw or Real Espana
52%

Winning margin

CD Marathon wins by 2+
24%
Real Espana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CD Marathon 1+ goals
79%
CD Marathon 2+ goals
46%
CD Marathon 3+ goals
20%
Real Espana 1+ goals
67%
Real Espana 2+ goals
30%
Real Espana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CD Marathon (draw refunded)
64%
Real Espana (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Marathon at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.98 · 164 matches

Real Espana away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.29 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Marathon attack 1.81 + Real Espana defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.55

Real Espana attack 1.22 + CD Marathon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CD Marathon scores more
48%
level
25%
Real Espana scores more
27%

CD Marathon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CD Marathon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: CD Marathon 0–0 Real Espana

CD Marathon and Real Espana drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on October 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal in San Pedro Sula.