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CD Marathon vs Olancho — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Marathon
CD Marathon
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Olancho
Olancho
4/12/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 18Estadio Yankel Rosenthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

CD Marathon48%
×Draw26%
Olancho26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Marathon
1.53
Olancho
1.05

CD Marathon creates 46% more chances

Season form · 164 home / 85 away

creates per match

CD Marathon
1.81
Olancho
1.12

allows per match

CD Marathon
0.98
Olancho
1.25

finishing

CD Marathon+0.00on par
Olancho+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Marathon ↓

Olancho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CD Marathon or draw
74%
CD Marathon or Olancho
74%
Draw or Olancho
52%

Winning margin

CD Marathon wins by 2+
25%
Olancho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CD Marathon 1+ goals
78%
CD Marathon 2+ goals
45%
CD Marathon 3+ goals
20%
Olancho 1+ goals
65%
Olancho 2+ goals
28%
Olancho 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CD Marathon (draw refunded)
65%
Olancho (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Marathon at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.98 · 164 matches

Olancho away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Marathon attack 1.81 + Olancho defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

Olancho attack 1.12 + CD Marathon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CD Marathon scores more
48%
level
26%
Olancho scores more
26%

CD Marathon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CD Marathon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: CD Marathon 0–2 Olancho

Olancho beat CD Marathon 2-0 in Liga Nacional on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal in San Pedro Sula.