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CD Lunda-Sul vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

CD Lunda-Sul
CD Lunda-Sul
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
5/28/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 30Estádio das Mangueiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

CD Lunda-Sul57%
×Draw27%
Sporting de Cabinda16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Lunda-Sul
1.46
Sporting de Cabinda
0.63

CD Lunda-Sul creates 132% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 68 away

creates per match

CD Lunda-Sul
0.99
Sporting de Cabinda
0.51

allows per match

CD Lunda-Sul
0.74
Sporting de Cabinda
1.94

finishing

CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lunda-Sul ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CD Lunda-Sul or draw
84%
CD Lunda-Sul or Sporting de Cabinda
73%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
43%

Winning margin

CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+
30%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals
77%
CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals
43%
CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals
18%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
47%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
13%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)
78%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lunda-Sul at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.74 · 70 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.99 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.51 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CD Lunda-Sul scores more
57%
level
27%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
16%

CD Lunda-Sul at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CD Lunda-Sul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Lunda-Sul vs Sporting de Cabinda

CD Lunda-Sul and Sporting de Cabinda drew 1-1 in Girabola on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio das Mangueiras in Saurimo.