CD Lunda-Sul 1–0 São Salvador: Result & Stats

CD Lunda-Sul

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

São Salvador

9/28/2025

Girabola · Round 2Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

CD Lunda-Sul48%

×Draw31%

São Salvador21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Lunda-SulExpected goals in this matchSão Salvador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.67

CD Lunda-Sul

1.17

São Salvador

0.67

CD Lunda-Sul creates 75% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 44 away

0.99

creates per match

0.59

0.74

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

CD Lunda-Sul

0.99

São Salvador

0.59

allows per match

CD Lunda-Sul

0.74

São Salvador

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par

São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lunda-Sul ↓

São Salvador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

CD Lunda-Sul or draw

79%

CD Lunda-Sul or São Salvador

69%

Draw or São Salvador

52%

Winning margin

CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+

21%

São Salvador wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals

69%

CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals

33%

CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals

11%

São Salvador 1+ goals

49%

São Salvador 2+ goals

15%

São Salvador 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)

69%

São Salvador (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lunda-Sul at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.74 · 70 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.99 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

São Salvador attack 0.59 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CD Lunda-Sul scores more

48%

level

31%

São Salvador scores more

21%

CD Lunda-Sul at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CD Lunda-Sul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff