CD Lunda-Sul 1–1 Interclube: Result & Stats

CD Lunda-Sul

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Interclube

10/19/2025

Girabola · Round 4Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CD Lunda-Sul38%

×Draw33%

Interclube29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Lunda-SulExpected goals in this matchInterclube

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.81

CD Lunda-Sul

0.98

Interclube

0.81

CD Lunda-Sul creates 21% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 107 away

0.99

creates per match

0.88

0.74

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

CD Lunda-Sul

0.99

Interclube

0.88

allows per match

CD Lunda-Sul

0.74

Interclube

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par

Interclube+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lunda-Sul ↓

Interclube →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

CD Lunda-Sul or draw

71%

CD Lunda-Sul or Interclube

67%

Draw or Interclube

62%

Winning margin

CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+

14%

Interclube wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals

62%

CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals

26%

CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals

8%

Interclube 1+ goals

56%

Interclube 2+ goals

19%

Interclube 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)

57%

Interclube (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lunda-Sul at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.74 · 70 matches

Interclube away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.98 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.99 + Interclube defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Interclube attack 0.88 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CD Lunda-Sul scores more

38%

level

33%

Interclube scores more

29%

CD Lunda-Sul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CD Lunda-Sul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff