CD Lunda-Sul 1–1 Bravos do Maquis FC

CD Lunda-Sul

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bravos do Maquis FC

3/29/2024

Girabola · Round 16Estádio das Mangueiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CD Lunda-Sul39%

×Draw32%

Bravos do Maquis FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Lunda-SulExpected goals in this matchBravos do Maquis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.84

CD Lunda-Sul

1.04

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.84

CD Lunda-Sul creates 24% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 106 away

0.99

creates per match

0.95

0.74

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

CD Lunda-Sul

0.99

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.95

allows per match

CD Lunda-Sul

0.74

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lunda-Sul ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

CD Lunda-Sul or draw

71%

CD Lunda-Sul or Bravos do Maquis FC

68%

Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC

61%

Winning margin

CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+

16%

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals

65%

CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals

28%

CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals

9%

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

57%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

21%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)

58%

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lunda-Sul at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.74 · 70 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.99 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CD Lunda-Sul scores more

39%

level

32%

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

29%

CD Lunda-Sul at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CD Lunda-Sul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff