CD Lugo B 3–0 Sofán: Result & Stats

CD Lugo B

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sofán

2/6/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Campo de fútbol de Mosteiro-Pol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CD Lugo B64%

×Draw21%

Sofán15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Lugo BExpected goals in this matchSofán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.83

CD Lugo B

1.96

Sofán

0.83

CD Lugo B creates 136% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 16 away

1.48

creates per match

0.88

0.78

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

CD Lugo B

1.48

Sofán

0.88

allows per match

CD Lugo B

0.78

Sofán

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Sofán+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lugo B ↓

Sofán →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CD Lugo B or draw

85%

CD Lugo B or Sofán

79%

Draw or Sofán

36%

Winning margin

CD Lugo B wins by 2+

39%

Sofán wins by 2+

Team goals

CD Lugo B 1+ goals

86%

CD Lugo B 2+ goals

58%

CD Lugo B 3+ goals

31%

Sofán 1+ goals

56%

Sofán 2+ goals

20%

Sofán 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)

81%

Sofán (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CD Lugo B at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Sofán away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CD Lugo B attack 1.48 + Sofán defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sofán attack 0.88 + CD Lugo B defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

CD Lugo B scores more

64%

level

21%

Sofán scores more

15%

CD Lugo B at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CD Lugo B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff