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CD Lugo B vs Pontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

CD Lugo B
CD Lugo B
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pontellas
Pontellas
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Campo de Fútbol A Cheda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CD Lugo B63%
×Draw23%
Pontellas15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Lugo B
1.75
Pontellas
0.70

CD Lugo B creates 150% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 31 away

creates per match

CD Lugo B
1.48
Pontellas
0.61

allows per match

CD Lugo B
0.78
Pontellas
2.03

finishing

CD Lugo B+0.00on par
Pontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lugo B ↓

Pontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CD Lugo B or draw
85%
CD Lugo B or Pontellas
77%
Draw or Pontellas
37%

Winning margin

CD Lugo B wins by 2+
36%
Pontellas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CD Lugo B 1+ goals
83%
CD Lugo B 2+ goals
52%
CD Lugo B 3+ goals
25%
Pontellas 1+ goals
50%
Pontellas 2+ goals
16%
Pontellas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)
81%
Pontellas (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lugo B at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Pontellas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lugo B attack 1.48 + Pontellas defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pontellas attack 0.61 + CD Lugo B defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CD Lugo B scores more
63%
level
23%
Pontellas scores more
15%

CD Lugo B at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CD Lugo B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Lugo B vs Pontellas

CD Lugo B beat Pontellas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol A Cheda in Lugo.