Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CD Lugo B vs Deportivo La Coruña II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

CD Lugo B
CD Lugo B
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Campo de Fútbol A Cheda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

CD Lugo B43%
×Draw28%
Deportivo La Coruña II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Lugo B
1.27
Deportivo La Coruña II
0.97

CD Lugo B creates 31% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 58 away

creates per match

CD Lugo B
1.48
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.16

allows per match

CD Lugo B
0.78
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.05

finishing

CD Lugo B+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lugo B ↓

Deportivo La Coruña II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CD Lugo B or draw
72%
CD Lugo B or Deportivo La Coruña II
72%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruña II
57%

Winning margin

CD Lugo B wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CD Lugo B 1+ goals
72%
CD Lugo B 2+ goals
36%
CD Lugo B 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lugo B at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Deportivo La Coruña II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lugo B attack 1.48 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.16 + CD Lugo B defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CD Lugo B scores more
43%
level
28%
Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
28%

CD Lugo B at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CD Lugo B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CD Lugo B 1 – 2 Deportivo La Coruña II

Deportivo La Coruña II beat CD Lugo B 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol A Cheda in Lugo.