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CD Lugo B vs Agrupación Estudiantil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

CD Lugo B
CD Lugo B
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Campo de Fútbol A Cheda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CD Lugo B57%
×Draw23%
Agrupación Estudiantil20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Lugo B
1.80
Agrupación Estudiantil
0.95

CD Lugo B creates 89% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

creates per match

CD Lugo B
1.48
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.12

allows per match

CD Lugo B
0.78
Agrupación Estudiantil
2.12

finishing

CD Lugo B+0.00on par
Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lugo B ↓

Agrupación Estudiantil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CD Lugo B or draw
80%
CD Lugo B or Agrupación Estudiantil
77%
Draw or Agrupación Estudiantil
43%

Winning margin

CD Lugo B wins by 2+
33%
Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CD Lugo B 1+ goals
83%
CD Lugo B 2+ goals
54%
CD Lugo B 3+ goals
27%
Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
61%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
25%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)
74%
Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lugo B at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Agrupación Estudiantil away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lugo B attack 1.48 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.80

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.12 + CD Lugo B defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CD Lugo B scores more
57%
level
23%
Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
20%

CD Lugo B at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CD Lugo B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CD Lugo B 0 – 0 Agrupación Estudiantil

CD Lugo B and Agrupación Estudiantil drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol A Cheda in Lugo.