CD Honduras 0–0 Real Espana: Result & Stats

CD Honduras

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Espana

11/19/2022

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 18Estadio Humberto Micheletti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

CD Honduras32%

×Draw26%

Real Espana42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD HondurasExpected goals in this matchReal Espana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.41

CD Honduras

1.21

Real Espana

1.41

Real Espana creates 17% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 161 away

1.13

creates per match

1.22

1.60

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

CD Honduras

1.13

Real Espana

1.22

allows per match

CD Honduras

1.60

Real Espana

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Honduras+0.00on par

Real Espana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Honduras ↓

Real Espana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CD Honduras or draw

58%

CD Honduras or Real Espana

74%

Draw or Real Espana

68%

Winning margin

CD Honduras wins by 2+

13%

Real Espana wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

CD Honduras 1+ goals

70%

CD Honduras 2+ goals

34%

CD Honduras 3+ goals

12%

Real Espana 1+ goals

76%

Real Espana 2+ goals

41%

Real Espana 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

CD Honduras (draw refunded)

44%

Real Espana (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Honduras at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 87 matches

Real Espana away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.29 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Honduras attack 1.13 + Real Espana defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Espana attack 1.22 + CD Honduras defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CD Honduras scores more

32%

level

26%

Real Espana scores more

42%

Real Espana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Espana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff