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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
5/15/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 5Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez45%
×Draw25%
Zulia FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.52
Zulia FC
1.19

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.44
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.31
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
70%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Zulia FC
75%
Draw or Zulia FC
55%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
22%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
78%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
45%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
20%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
70%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
33%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
60%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
45%
level
25%
Zulia FC scores more
30%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Zulia FC

CD Hermanos Colmenarez and Zulia FC drew 0-0 in Primera División on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.