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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Zamora FC — Primera División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zamora FC
Zamora FC
2/25/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 1Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez42%
×Draw26%
Zamora FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.39
Zamora FC
1.17

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 19% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 136 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.44
Zamora FC
1.03

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.31
Zamora FC
1.34

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Zamora FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Zamora FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
68%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Zamora FC
74%
Draw or Zamora FC
58%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
20%
Zamora FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
75%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
40%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
16%
Zamora FC 1+ goals
69%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
33%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
57%
Zamora FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Zamora FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Zamora FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zamora FC attack 1.03 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
42%
level
26%
Zamora FC scores more
32%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Zamora FC

CD Hermanos Colmenarez and Zamora FC drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.