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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Union Atl. Falcon — Segunda División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
FT
2 – 0
Union Atl. Falcon
Union Atl. Falcon
6/2/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 17Estadio Reinaldo Melo Matheus (Barinas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez61%
×Draw22%
Union Atl. Falcon17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.95
Union Atl. Falcon
0.93

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 110% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 15 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.77
Union Atl. Falcon
0.80

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.05
Union Atl. Falcon
2.13

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Union Atl. Falcon+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Union Atl. Falcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
83%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Union Atl. Falcon
78%
Draw or Union Atl. Falcon
39%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
37%
Union Atl. Falcon wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
86%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
58%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
31%
Union Atl. Falcon 1+ goals
61%
Union Atl. Falcon 2+ goals
24%
Union Atl. Falcon 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
78%
Union Atl. Falcon (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Union Atl. Falcon away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.77 + Union Atl. Falcon defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.95

Union Atl. Falcon attack 0.80 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
61%
level
22%
Union Atl. Falcon scores more
17%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Union Atl. Falcon

CD Hermanos Colmenarez beat Union Atl. Falcon 2-0 in Segunda División on June 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Reinaldo Melo Matheus (Barinas).