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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Puerto Cabello — Primera División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
3/25/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 5Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez40%
×Draw27%
Puerto Cabello33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.30
Puerto Cabello
1.17

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 11% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 143 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.44
Puerto Cabello
1.02

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.31
Puerto Cabello
1.16

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Puerto Cabello →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
67%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Puerto Cabello
73%
Draw or Puerto Cabello
60%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
18%
Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
73%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
37%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
14%
Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
69%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
33%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
54%
Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Puerto Cabello away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Puerto Cabello attack 1.02 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
40%
level
27%
Puerto Cabello scores more
33%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 4 – 1 Puerto Cabello

CD Hermanos Colmenarez beat Puerto Cabello 4-1 in Primera División on March 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.