CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1–1 Mineros de Guyana

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mineros de Guyana

6/12/2022

Primera División · Round 16Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez45%

×Draw25%

Mineros de Guyana30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Hermanos ColmenarezExpected goals in this matchMineros de Guyana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.19

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.52

Mineros de Guyana

1.19

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 94 away

1.44

creates per match

1.06

1.31

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.44

Mineros de Guyana

1.06

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.31

Mineros de Guyana

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Mineros de Guyana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw

70%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Mineros de Guyana

75%

Draw or Mineros de Guyana

55%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

22%

Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

78%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

45%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

20%

Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals

70%

Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals

33%

Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

60%

Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Mineros de Guyana away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.06 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

45%

level

25%

Mineros de Guyana scores more

30%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff