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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Metropolitanos FC — Copa Venezuela 2024

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FCadvanced
7/7/2024Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Round of 16Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez33%
×Draw24%
Metropolitanos FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.42
Metropolitanos FC
1.67

Metropolitanos FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.33
Metropolitanos FC
2.00

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.33
Metropolitanos FC
1.50

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
57%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Metropolitanos FC
76%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
67%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
15%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
76%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
41%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
17%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
81%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
50%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
43%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.33 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Metropolitanos FC attack 2.00 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
33%
level
24%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
43%

Metropolitanos FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Metropolitanos FC

Metropolitanos FC beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3-2 in Copa Venezuela on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.