CD Hermanos Colmenarez 0–1 Metropolitanos FC

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metropolitanos FC

7/3/2023

Primera División · Round 17Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez42%

×Draw26%

Metropolitanos FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Hermanos ColmenarezExpected goals in this matchMetropolitanos FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.19

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.41

Metropolitanos FC

1.19

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 140 away

1.44

creates per match

1.07

1.31

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.44

Metropolitanos FC

1.07

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.31

Metropolitanos FC

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Metropolitanos FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw

68%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Metropolitanos FC

74%

Draw or Metropolitanos FC

58%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

20%

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

76%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

41%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

17%

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals

70%

Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals

33%

Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

57%

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

42%

level

26%

Metropolitanos FC scores more

32%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff