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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia — Segunda División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CANC
19:30
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
5/9/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 13Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez58%
×Draw22%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.91
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.04

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 84% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 44 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.77
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.02

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.05
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
2.05

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
80%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
78%
Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
42%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
34%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
85%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
57%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
30%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
74%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.77 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.91

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
58%
level
22%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
20%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CD Hermanos Colmenarez host Deportivo JBL del Zulia

May 9, 2020: CD Hermanos Colmenarez take on Deportivo JBL del Zulia in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez host Deportivo JBL del Zulia at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.