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CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Angostura FC — Primera División 2018

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
10/12/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez46%
×Draw25%
Angostura FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.58
Angostura FC
1.19

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 30 away

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.44
Angostura FC
1.07

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.31
Angostura FC
1.73

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw
71%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Angostura FC
75%
Draw or Angostura FC
54%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
24%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
79%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
47%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
21%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
70%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
33%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
62%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Angostura FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Angostura FC attack 1.07 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
46%
level
25%
Angostura FC scores more
29%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Hermanos Colmenarez vs Angostura FC

Angostura FC beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2-1 in Primera División on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.