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CD Coria vs Trujillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

CD Coria
CD Coria
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Trujillo
Trujillo
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

CD Coria58%
×Draw23%
Trujillo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Coria
1.76
Trujillo
0.90

CD Coria creates 96% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 92 away

creates per match

CD Coria
2.14
Trujillo
1.03

allows per match

CD Coria
0.77
Trujillo
1.37

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par
Trujillo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Trujillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw
81%
CD Coria or Trujillo
77%
Draw or Trujillo
42%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+
33%
Trujillo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals
83%
CD Coria 2+ goals
52%
CD Coria 3+ goals
26%
Trujillo 1+ goals
59%
Trujillo 2+ goals
23%
Trujillo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)
75%
Trujillo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Trujillo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Trujillo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.76

Trujillo attack 1.03 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CD Coria scores more
58%
level
23%
Trujillo scores more
19%

CD Coria at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: CD Coria 2–2 Trujillo

CD Coria and Trujillo drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Isla in Coria.