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CD Coria vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

CD Coria
CD Coria
CANC
22:00
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 36Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

CD Coria67%
×Draw20%
RCP Valverdeño13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Coria
2.00
RCP Valverdeño
0.74

CD Coria creates 170% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 46 away

creates per match

CD Coria
2.14
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

CD Coria
0.77
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw
87%
CD Coria or RCP Valverdeño
80%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
33%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+
42%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals
86%
CD Coria 2+ goals
59%
CD Coria 3+ goals
32%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
52%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
17%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)
84%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

CD Coria scores more
67%
level
20%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
13%

CD Coria at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CD Coria vs RCP Valverdeño — Match Preview

CD Coria face RCP Valverdeño on May 2, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

CD Coria host RCP Valverdeño at Estadio La Isla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.