CD Coria 2–1 Jaraíz: Result & Stats

CD Coria

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Jaraíz

2/25/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 23Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

CD Coria55%

×Draw23%

Jaraíz22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD CoriaExpected goals in this matchJaraíz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.08

CD Coria

1.83

Jaraíz

1.08

CD Coria creates 69% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 52 away

2.14

creates per match

1.40

0.77

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

CD Coria

2.14

Jaraíz

1.40

allows per match

CD Coria

0.77

Jaraíz

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par

Jaraíz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Jaraíz →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw

78%

CD Coria or Jaraíz

77%

Draw or Jaraíz

45%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+

31%

Jaraíz wins by 2+

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals

84%

CD Coria 2+ goals

54%

CD Coria 3+ goals

28%

Jaraíz 1+ goals

66%

Jaraíz 2+ goals

29%

Jaraíz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)

71%

Jaraíz (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Jaraíz away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Jaraíz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.83

Jaraíz attack 1.40 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

CD Coria scores more

55%

level

23%

Jaraíz scores more

22%

CD Coria at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff