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CD Coria vs Fuente Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

CD Coria
CD Coria
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
12/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 15Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

CD Coria63%
×Draw22%
Fuente Cantos16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Coria
1.91
Fuente Cantos
0.83

CD Coria creates 130% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 61 away

creates per match

CD Coria
2.14
Fuente Cantos
0.89

allows per match

CD Coria
0.77
Fuente Cantos
1.67

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par
Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Fuente Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw
84%
CD Coria or Fuente Cantos
78%
Draw or Fuente Cantos
37%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+
38%
Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals
85%
CD Coria 2+ goals
57%
CD Coria 3+ goals
30%
Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
56%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
20%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)
80%
Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CD Coria scores more
63%
level
22%
Fuente Cantos scores more
16%

CD Coria at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Coria vs Fuente Cantos

CD Coria beat Fuente Cantos 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Isla in Coria.