CD Coria 2–1 Chinato: Result & Stats

CD Coria

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chinato

11/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 7Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CD Coria69%

×Draw19%

Chinato12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD CoriaExpected goals in this matchChinato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.75

CD Coria

2.13

Chinato

0.75

CD Coria creates 184% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

2.14

creates per match

0.73

0.77

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

CD Coria

2.14

Chinato

0.73

allows per match

CD Coria

0.77

Chinato

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par

Chinato+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Chinato →

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw

88%

CD Coria or Chinato

81%

Draw or Chinato

31%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+

44%

Chinato wins by 2+

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals

88%

CD Coria 2+ goals

63%

CD Coria 3+ goals

35%

Chinato 1+ goals

53%

Chinato 2+ goals

17%

Chinato 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)

85%

Chinato (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Chinato away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Chinato defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.13

Chinato attack 0.73 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

CD Coria scores more

69%

level

19%

Chinato scores more

12%

CD Coria at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff