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CD Coria vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

CD Coria
CD Coria
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
10/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 4Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

CD Coria68%
×Draw19%
Atlético Pueblonuevo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Coria
2.13
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.81

CD Coria creates 163% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 66 away

creates per match

CD Coria
2.14
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

CD Coria
0.77
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw
87%
CD Coria or Atlético Pueblonuevo
81%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
32%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+
43%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals
88%
CD Coria 2+ goals
63%
CD Coria 3+ goals
35%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)
84%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.13

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

CD Coria scores more
68%
level
19%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
13%

CD Coria at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: CD Coria 2–2 Atlético Pueblonuevo

CD Coria and Atlético Pueblonuevo drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Isla in Coria.