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CD Coria vs Arroyo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

CD Coria
CD Coria
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arroyo
Arroyo
2/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 23Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

CD Coria59%
×Draw23%
Arroyo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Coria
1.76
Arroyo
0.83

CD Coria creates 112% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 90 away

creates per match

CD Coria
2.14
Arroyo
0.89

allows per match

CD Coria
0.77
Arroyo
1.37

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par
Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Arroyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw
83%
CD Coria or Arroyo
77%
Draw or Arroyo
41%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+
34%
Arroyo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals
83%
CD Coria 2+ goals
52%
CD Coria 3+ goals
26%
Arroyo 1+ goals
56%
Arroyo 2+ goals
20%
Arroyo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)
77%
Arroyo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.76

Arroyo attack 0.89 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CD Coria scores more
59%
level
23%
Arroyo scores more
17%

CD Coria at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Coria vs Arroyo

CD Coria beat Arroyo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Isla in Coria.