CD Arabe Unido 1–4 Independiente de La Chorrera

CD Arabe Unido

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Independiente de La Chorrera

R. Emanuel 53'

V. Ávila 87', 36'

A. Modelo 38'

J. Obando 29'

4/6/2024

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 11Estadio Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

CD Arabe Unido34%

×Draw29%

Independiente de La Chorrera37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Arabe UnidoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente de La Chorrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.14

CD Arabe Unido

1.08

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 129 away

1.05

creates per match

1.37

0.90

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

CD Arabe Unido

1.05

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.37

allows per match

CD Arabe Unido

0.90

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Arabe Unido+0.00on par

Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Arabe Unido ↓

Independiente de La Chorrera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CD Arabe Unido or draw

63%

CD Arabe Unido or Independiente de La Chorrera

71%

Draw or Independiente de La Chorrera

66%

Winning margin

CD Arabe Unido wins by 2+

13%

Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CD Arabe Unido 1+ goals

66%

CD Arabe Unido 2+ goals

29%

CD Arabe Unido 3+ goals

10%

Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals

68%

Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals

32%

Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CD Arabe Unido (draw refunded)

48%

Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Arabe Unido at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.90 · 125 matches

Independiente de La Chorrera away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Arabe Unido attack 1.05 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.37 + CD Arabe Unido defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CD Arabe Unido scores more

34%

level

29%

Independiente de La Chorrera scores more

37%

Independiente de La Chorrera at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Independiente de La Chorrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

29'

36'

38'

41'

46'

46'

R. Emanuel← C. Cragwell

46'

R. Lindo← Ó. Peñalba

46'

J. Modelo← J. González

53'

R. Emanuel

68'

E. Ceballos← J. Harrison

73'

E. Roberts

73'

D. Morán← J. Obando

73'

R. Dinolis← J. Modelo

74'

D. Wright← R. Baruco

81'

E. Ceballos

87'

V. Ávila

CD

Independiente

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Perlo

46'▲M. Sierra←▼J. Cruz

46'▲R. Emanuel←▼C. Cragwell

46'▲R. Lindo←▼Ó. Peñalba

68'▲E. Ceballos←▼J. Harrison

74'▲D. Wright←▼R. Baruco

CD Arabe Unido substitutes

SierraEmanuelLindoCeballosWrightGuevaraReynaAlexanderMenesesMartínez

Manager: F. Narvaez

28'▲J. Obando←▼G. Rouse

46'▲J. Modelo←▼J. González

73'▲D. Morán←▼J. Obando

73'▲R. Dinolis←▼J. Modelo

Independiente de La Chorrera substitutes

ObandoModeloMoránDinolisCaballeroNarváezSimonsAcostaSánchezNavarro

Match Recap: CD Arabe Unido vs Independiente de La Chorrera

Independiente de La Chorrera beat CD Arabe Unido 4-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on April 6, 2024.

Goals: J. Obando (29'), V. Ávila (36', 87'), A. Modelo (38'), R. Emanuel (53').

The match was played at Estadio Los Andes in San Miguelito.

CD Arabe Unido vs Independiente de La Chorrera — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CD Arabe Unido vs Independiente de La Chorrera