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Cazalegas vs Tarancón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Cazalegas
Cazalegas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tarancón
Tarancón
1/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 17Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cazalegas36%
×Draw27%
Tarancón37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cazalegas
1.23
Tarancón
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cazalegas
1.29
Tarancón
1.28

allows per match

Cazalegas
1.20
Tarancón
1.17

finishing

Cazalegas+0.00on par
Tarancón+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cazalegas ↓

Tarancón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cazalegas or draw
63%
Cazalegas or Tarancón
73%
Draw or Tarancón
64%

Winning margin

Cazalegas wins by 2+
16%
Tarancón wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cazalegas 1+ goals
71%
Cazalegas 2+ goals
35%
Cazalegas 3+ goals
13%
Tarancón 1+ goals
71%
Tarancón 2+ goals
35%
Tarancón 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cazalegas (draw refunded)
50%
Tarancón (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cazalegas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

Tarancón away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cazalegas attack 1.29 + Tarancón defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tarancón attack 1.28 + Cazalegas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cazalegas scores more
36%
level
27%
Tarancón scores more
37%

Tarancón at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cazalegas vs Tarancón

Tarancón beat Cazalegas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación in Cazalegas.