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Cazalegas vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Cazalegas
Cazalegas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
3/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 27Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cazalegas43%
×Draw27%
Huracán Balazote29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cazalegas
1.36
Huracán Balazote
1.07

Cazalegas creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

creates per match

Cazalegas
1.29
Huracán Balazote
0.95

allows per match

Cazalegas
1.20
Huracán Balazote
1.44

finishing

Cazalegas+0.00on par
Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cazalegas ↓

Huracán Balazote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cazalegas or draw
71%
Cazalegas or Huracán Balazote
73%
Draw or Huracán Balazote
57%

Winning margin

Cazalegas wins by 2+
20%
Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cazalegas 1+ goals
74%
Cazalegas 2+ goals
39%
Cazalegas 3+ goals
16%
Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
66%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
29%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cazalegas (draw refunded)
60%
Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cazalegas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cazalegas attack 1.29 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Cazalegas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cazalegas scores more
43%
level
27%
Huracán Balazote scores more
29%

Cazalegas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cazalegas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Cazalegas 0–1 Huracán Balazote

Huracán Balazote beat Cazalegas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación in Cazalegas.